Malawi President Lazarus Chakwera is on course for a landslide defeat in the 2025 Presidential elections, according to recent opinion polls. In one poll conducted by Malawi24, an online news publication, Chakwera secured only about 4,000 votes out of nearly 40,000 participants, which accounts for around 10% of the total responses. In contrast, rookie UTM presidential aspirant Dalitso Kabambe surpassed Chakwera to claim second place with almost 9,000 votes. The most surprising result, however, was former president Peter Mutharika, who garnered nearly 24,000 votes.

Despite these findings, the polls have been criticised by some, particularly die-hard supporters of the Malawi Congress Party (MCP).

A common argument often parroted by this group is that people on social media don’t vote, or that elections are not won on social media. An example often cited is Vice President Saulos Chilima, who, according to some, was popular and led almost all social media/online polls leading up to the 2019 presidential elections, only to come third in the actual results.

However, both you and I are on social media, and if you’re on social media and plan to vote, then the argument that people on social media don’t vote is flawed. I have been using social media for more than 20 years, from the days of Facebook and Blogspot to this AI generation. I have commented on politics and voted in most elections since 2004 since becoming an eligible voter. But, unlike in the past, I will be on social media and will likely not vote this year. Not because I want to, but because MEC won’t allow me to, as I am outside the country. The system, in this context, is rigged against me.

As such, there are some who participated in the poll who are likely not to vote. But I can only guess that this fraction is too small. There are some on social media, just like me, who won’t vote. But, just like me, there are also some who didn’t take part in this opinion poll who will vote. This opinion poll, therefore, involved and captured only a fraction of those who will vote.

What makes this opinion poll unique, however, is that it is the first time in Malawi an opinion poll has generated nearly 40,000 responses, with each person casting one vote.

It should be noted, however, that the participation wasn’t scientific and did not follow the statistical rigour that other opinion polls subscribe to. However, one could also argue that in all previous opinion polls leading up to the 2019 and 2020 presidential elections, President Peter Mutharika was always coming a distant third; except for those pseudo-opinion polls devised and conducted by some DPP operatives as we are currently seeing with MCP.

In the 2019 Afrobarometer survey, Mutharika lost, and Chakwera won. This year, Chakwera has lost. Of course, their sample sizes were smaller, but unlike the Malawi24 opinion poll, Afrobarometer’s poll was grounded in scientific principles and methodological approaches. To make it even more unique, the Malawi24 and Afrobarometer opinion polls could be seen as complementary, as their results reflect each other. Chakwera has lost grip of the country. Most Malawians want him out of office. Unless a genie grants him a miraculous wish, there is no way he will survive 2025, and his downfall, according to these two opinion polls, will come with a landslide. Peter Mutharika may not even need an alliance with, say, UTM or UDF. This would undermine Kabambe’s strategy if that is the reason he gambled on leaving DPP for UTM.

However, Mutharika could still lose this election if he or the DPP make the same gamble as they did in 2019 or 2020. In 2019, the DPP made the mistake of picking someone extremely unpopular within party ranks as a number 2: Overton Chimulirenji. Chakwera’s politics and those of our current Finance Minister remind me of Mr. Chimung’angang’a (as my sister put it, with two crying emojis). No wonder the country’s economy is in such a big mess. Guesswork is leading Malawi.

The second unpopular gamble the DPP made in 2020 was forming an alliance with UDF and Atupele Muluzi. DPP’s Vice President for the East, Bright Msaka, had already decimated Atupele Muluzi, even in his own constituency, Kapoloma, where the young Muluzi lost considerably. Who, in their right mind, would pick someone they’ve already beaten in an alliance? Just because it was feasible to form an alliance doesn’t mean the DPP needed to choose Muluzi as a running mate. I would have picked Msaka instead and promise Muluzi a ministerial role for his support.

Mutharika faces a similar challenge. Word on the street is that he may consider Mrs. Mary Chilima as his running mate. This makes political sense, given her popularity. She is well-educated, with a PhD from a reputable university. Is she a proven leader? That remains unclear. However, when you consider the gender, age, and tribal politics that have shaped Malawi since 1964, she ticks all the boxes. She is from the North, female, and younger than the other potential candidates. However, it’s important to note that the DPP was betrayed by her husband (she is not her husband, so we must judge her as an individual), just as Joyce Banda has been criticised (Malawians often tend to over-judge women). Additionally, UTM is in disarray, so while her inclusion might not secure all UTM votes, she would undoubtedly garner significant support. She is more popular and would likely bring in more votes than, for example, Triephonia Mpinganjira – another Chimulirenji-  has recently come under heavy scrutiny. Also, her husband, Thom Mpinganjira, hails from Thyolo and has long been considered an associate of the DPP, despite admitting to financing Chakwera’s rise to the presidency. Therefore, Mary Chilima stands out more than Triephonia.

There are also some young, charismatic figures within the DPP, such as the fearless Ben Phiri, who continues to prove himself in Parliament with each sitting. However, his home of origin may limit his chances now for the running mate role. But at least DPP is sure as hell in good hands.

What I’m saying is that Mutharika and the party need to be strategic. They must choose a running mate who won’t undermine the party’s chances of victory; someone who will inspire hope that, should anything happen to Mutharika (God forbid, and it pains me to even write this, as I sound like Liabunya), Malawi will still be in good hands, without repeating the mistakes made by JB, Chilumpha, and Muluzi in their second terms by abandoning their parties. This task seems nearly impossible, but with the right team; or guidance, not opportunists – it is possible to find a suitable candidate. Malawi is on the brink of ruin, and as it stands, President Peter Mutharika and the DPP are what Malawians need to salvage what’s left of this sinking ship.